Facebook is the new AOL — and all that that implies

Over the past year, Facebook has overtaken AOL’s global traffic and become the fourth largest Web site (as measured by pageviews) in the world, behind Microsoft, Yahoo and Google. Heady company, but it’s the AOL comparison that’s prescient.

Once upon a time, AOL was the unstoppable juggernaut of the Internet world, presenting a “dumbed down” Web experience that simplified surfing for the average consumer. Setting aside AOL’s all-but-dead dial-up access business, this is precisely the same business model that Facebook is chasing right now. Facebook 2009 was AOL 1994 — the Internet on top of the Internet that everyone and their mom was using to surf, chat, and buy stuff.

Today, Time Warner can’t get rid of AOL fast enough. Whenever AOL launches a new site, it goes out of its way not to attach the AOL brand to the product — because AOL is a black mark in the Web industry. AOL means tired. AOL means old. AOL means broken.

And Facebook, FYI, still doesn’t have a serious revenue model, not even one as obviously short-lived as AOL’s dial-up model.

All of which is to say — how much longer is Facebook going to exist? How much longer is Facebook going to be free? How much longer are you going to trust Facebook with your data? If Facebook shuts down, starts selling your data, or simply starts charging you to access your own information, what is your Plan B? What’s your backup?

AOL was once king, and is now a leper. You probably had a lot of data in an AOL mail account once. How easy was that data to retrieve when you switched. How easy will Facebook make switching when and if their time comes? Think about it.

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